Global oil supply short-term update - August 2019

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2020. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Despite tensions growing in the Persian Gulf our overall supply outlook remains broadly unchanged for 2019. We expect supply growth to be a modest 700,000 b/d before increasing to 1.7 million b/d in 2020. Key analysis includes: Brazil: crude oil production is forecast to increase by 180 kb/d in 2019, and an additional 240 kb/d in 2020. However, Campos Basin declines have offset recent production growth in the Santos Basin. Russia: production stabilises in July, but remains marginally lower than agreed production cut levels of ~11.2 million b/d. US Lower 48: Production is coming in close to our forecast, but activity is trending lower into the end of 2019. Downside risk exists for Q4 2019; corporate guidance will be closely watched