Global oil supply short-term update - August 2020

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Global liquids supply remains under severe pressure from the oil price collapse and uncertainty caused by the covid-19 pandemic. Production has plummeted since the start of the year - output in Q2 2020 fell almost 8 million b/d compared to Q1, to 93 million b/d. Relative to January, June supply was almost 12 million b/d lower. Strong OPEC+ compliance, additional cuts by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, and peak shut-in volumes, particularly in the US and Canada, all played a part in cutting supply from the market. We expect June to be the low point for supply this year. Production shut-ins have started to ease in the US and Canada, and the OPEC+ group agreed on 15 July to relax the groups production targets from August.