Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - August 2024
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Despite the mixed backdrop of economic concern on the one hand, and rising geopolitical tensions on the other, our outlook for global supply remains stable. Our forecast continues to assume an easing of the OPEC+ cuts through the fourth quarter of 2024 and into 2025, supporting strong year-on-year growth in supply in 2025. This remains heavily dependent on market conditions and continued strength in global demand growth. At the latest Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on 1 August, the group made no changes to OPEC+ policy. Non-OPEC supply changes are driven by upgrades to US, Angola, China and Guyana, with minimal changes made to our OPEC supply outlook.
Table of contents
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Global supply: revisions weighted to the upside as JMMC make no changes to OPEC+ policy
- Non-OPEC supply: outlook driven by upgrades to US, Angola, China and Guyana
- US Lower 48 oil production forecast to reach 11 million b/d in Q4 2024
- OPEC: OPEC+ continues commitment to balancing the market
Tables and charts
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