Country Report

Global oil supply short-term update - December 2022

09 December 2022

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09 December 2022

Global oil supply short-term update - December 2022

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2024. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The latest OPEC+ meeting was held on 4 December and as expected it was agreed to leave the production limits unchanged. However, the market remains on tenterhooks as it waits for the effects of the implementation of the EU import ban and G7/EU price cap on Russian crude supply. Global liquids supply is revised upwards, by 50,000 b/d for 2022, 20,000 b/d for 2023 and 70,000 b/d for 2024. The largest upward revisions are to US Lower 48 crude and NGLs and Algeria. These are largely balanced by downward revisions to Canada NGLs, Equatorial Guinea and Indonesia.

Global supply: limited changes to the outlook as OPEC+ opts for a wait and see approach
- Non-OPEC supply: US Lower 48 growth accelerates; Russia production remains strong, for now
- Russia production strong ahead of implementation of EU oil ban and G7 price cap
- US Lower 48: growth takes sharp turn higher
- OPEC supply: OPEC+ agrees to continue with 2 million b/d production cut