Global oil supply short-term update - February 2024

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied this month by a slide deck and related excel data download. The pace of supply growth slows in 2024 and our expectation remains that the supply and demand fundamentals will tighten after Q1, allowing for some additional OPEC barrels to be brought back into the market. The main headline over the last month was the announcement that Saudi Aramco was shelving its plan to increase crude capacity by 1 million b/d this decade, although this is not expected to alter our supply forecast through 2025. The changes to our overall forecast are relatively minor in this update. Upgrades across the Americas and in Iran are balanced by downward revisions to the UK, Norway and Kazakhstan, and by further lowering of our OPEC outlook as key producers are expected to continue to adjust production to achieve market stability.