Global oil supply short-term update - January 2020

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The new year brings increased uncertainty for global liquids supply outlook. The ramp-up in geopolitical tension between the US and Iran and other actors in the Middle East have compounded an already unstable environment. Despite the growing tensions, our global outlook for supply shows marginal upward revisions from last month. Global supply is forecast to rise 1.9 million b/d in 2020, to 102.4 million b/d, and 0.9 million b/d in 2021, to 103.4 million b/d. This is an increase of 160,000 b/d and 70,000 b/d respectively, with the focus of the upgrades on non-OPEC supply.