Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - January 2022
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied this month by a related excel data download only. The slide pack will resume with the early February report. Concerns over supply fears were amplified in early January with rising political risks in Kazakhstan and additional operational issues in Libya. Countering these concerns to some degree is an upgrade to our outlook for onshore US Lower 48 supply, as drilling efficiency improves. Furthermore, at the 4 January OPEC+ meeting, the group once again agreed to proceed with the planned 400,000 b/d increase in output for February. Global supply is revised down in 2021, with the focus of revisions on Brazil, Russia (NGLs), Nigeria and the North Sea. Upward revisions in 2022 and 2023 are focused primarily on onshore US Lower 48, Iraq and Mexico.
Table of contents
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Global supply: political unrest and protests add to supply risk
- Non-OPEC: upward revision to US Lower 48 offsets downgrades to Norway, Brazil and Russia
- US Lower 48: improving efficiencies push growth higher
- OPEC: Libya outages; easing of production restraint continues as planned for OPEC+
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