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Country Report 07 June 2024

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied this month by a slide deck and related excel data download. On 2 June, members of OPEC+ agreed several changes in production policy. In what is a relatively complex outcome, the group agreed to extend two tranches of additional voluntary production cuts totalling 3.7 million b/d to the end of 2025. In addition, the 2.2 million b/d of voluntary production cuts agreed in November 2023 and implemented in Q1 2024, have been rolled over to the end of Q3 2024, but will then be gradually phased out from October 2024 to September 2025, depending on market conditions. The changes to our forecast are mainly focused on OPEC crude supply.

Global supply: OPEC+ surprises the market with an agreement on production limits through 2025 and a plan to phase out some voluntary cuts from October 2024
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to Russia, Oman and Brazil offset by upgrades to US NGLs and Malaysia
- Lower 48 annual oil production growth forecast to slow to 250,000 b/d in 2024
- OPEC: OPEC+ extends baseline cuts through 2025, whilst lifting additional voluntary cuts