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Country Report 06 March 2019

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2020. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. Our outlook for global supply remains relatively unchanged from last month, despite the backdrop of growing geopolitical risk and uncertainty in various oil producing regions. Global supply is forecast to add 1.1 million b/d in 2019, less than half of the growth seen in 2018. Why? Sanctions against Iran and Venezuela result in a combined loss of around 1.1 million b/d; OPEC cuts, led by Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait result in a fall of 0.4 million b/d; and growth is slowing in Canada, as mandated production cuts impact supply, particularly through the first half of 2019.

Global supply: growth slows in 2019 before strengthening in 2020
Non-OPEC supply: growth persists above two million b/d in 2019 and 2020
- US Lower 48: marginal upward revisions as operators put emphasis on completion in H2 2019
OPEC: risk of potential disruption from geopolitical risk and sanctions
- Venezuela: pressure on Maduro ratchets up
- Libya: El Sharara production to resume as NOC lift force majeure
- Nigeria: Buhari wins a second presidential term