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Global oil supply short-term update - May 2025
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Oil market uncertainty continues to disrupt the outlook for global supply. Our latest assessment for supply is based on a weaker economic outlook and slower pace of demand growth in both 2025 and 2026. Combined with OPEC+ accelerating the easing of production cuts, this puts downward pressure on prices, notably impacting onshore US Lower 48 production, which is forecast to decline slightly from 2025 to 2026. This month’s revisions show OPEC+ unwinding cuts through Q3, then stabilizing through 2026. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Russia see upward revisions, while Iraq and Iran are revised lower. Non-OPEC supply has been revised down for the US, Angola, Ecuador, and Indonesia.
Table of contents
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Global supply: weakening demand outlook and OPEC+ easing of cuts puts pressure on US onshore supply
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to North American outlook dominates changes this month
- US Lower 48 supply to marginally decline year-on-year in 2026
- OPEC: OPEC+ accelerate unwinding cuts in May
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What's included
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