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Global oil supply short-term update - May 2025

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The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Oil market uncertainty continues to disrupt the outlook for global supply. Our latest assessment for supply is based on a weaker economic outlook and slower pace of demand growth in both 2025 and 2026. Combined with OPEC+ accelerating the easing of production cuts, this puts downward pressure on prices, notably impacting onshore US Lower 48 production, which is forecast to decline slightly from 2025 to 2026. This month’s revisions show OPEC+ unwinding cuts through Q3, then stabilizing through 2026. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Russia see upward revisions, while Iraq and Iran are revised lower. Non-OPEC supply has been revised down for the US, Angola, Ecuador, and Indonesia.

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global oil supply summary May 2025 slidepack.pdf

    PDF 1.16 MB

  • Document

    Global Oil Supply Data May 2025.xlsx

    XLSX 375.97 KB