Global oil supply short-term update - November 2019

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The outlook for global liquids supply growth this year remains unchanged from last month, at a mere 300,000 b/d, far below the 2.5 million b/d that was added in 2018. OPEC+ cuts and sanctions against Iran and Venezuela play a key part in the 2019 slowdown, along with continued falls in activity levels onshore US Lower 48. Gone are the days of 2018 when we witnessed growth of 1.6 million b/d from crude oil and lease condensate alone. This year, US L48 onshore crude oil growth will fall to 1.1 million b/d, before more than halving, to only 500,000 b/d in 2020. On the assumption that OPEC+ production cuts remain in place, global liquids growth will rebound to 1.8 million b/d in 2020 and 1 million b/d in 2021. But the underlying dynamics, particularly of non-OPEC supply increases, are shifting.