Global oil supply short-term update - October 2019

Global liquids supply is forecast to grow 300,000 b/d in 2019, to 100.5 million b/d, and increase 1.8 million b/d in 2020 to bring total supply to 102.3 million b/d. Total liquids supply has been revised down by 250,000 b/d for 2019 and 110,000 b/d for 2020. Downgrades this month are dominated by OPEC: crude output has fallen in response to the September attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais processing facilities in Saudi Arabia, along with a lowering of our Iran outlook as exports fall. This month we have extended our short-term forecast through 2021. Global supply continues to grow strongly in 2021, increasing by 1.3 million b/d to give total liquids supply of 103.6 million b/d. US supply momentum slows down, but our OPEC outlook remains broadly flat in 2021. This assumes OPEC producers continue to show production restraint to offset continued non-OPEC supply growth.