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Global oil supply short-term update - October 2020

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07 October 2020

Global oil supply short-term update - October 2020

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Global liquids supply is forecast to fall by 5.1 million b/d year-on-year in 2020, to 95.4 million b/d, and increase by 2.2 million b/d in 2021 to 97.6 million b/d. Total liquids supply has been revised up by 20,000 b/d for 2020 and 230,000 b/d for 2021. The upgrades are largely driven by brighter prospects for production recovery in Libya. This month we have extended our short-term forecast through 2022. Global supply continues to grow strongly in 2022, increasing by 1.9 million b/d to average 99.5 million b/d. Non-OPEC supply growth (excluding unconventionals) is slightly lower than the growth in OPEC supply, with around half of the non-OPEC gains accounted for by the US. We assume that OPEC producers continue to show a degree of production restraint to offset the continued non-OPEC supply growth.

Table of contents

    • Non-OPEC: outlook remains broadly unchanged at top level
    • US Lower 48: return to growth in 2022
    • Strike action shuts in six fields in Norway
    • Outlook extended to 2022: managing declines will be key
    • OPEC supply: production rises due to easing of OPEC+ restraint and recovery in Libya

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global oil supply short-term outlook slidepack October 2020.pdf

    PDF 890.35 KB

  • Document

    Global Oil Supply Data October 2020.xls

    XLS 392.00 KB

  • Document

    Global oil supply short-term update - October 2020

    PDF 751.97 KB