Global oil supply short-term update - September 2021

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The latest OPEC+ meeting took place on 1 September, during which they quickly agreed to maintain the mid-July compromise agreement that allows for a 400,000 b/d rise in output across the group per month. Once again, this was in line with our previous assumptions and results in our outlook for global supply showing only minor revisions this month. Overall global supply has been revised down by 50,000 b/d for 2021, to 96.0 million b/d. The largest downgrades are to the UK and Russia and are partially offset by an upgrade to US Lower 48 crude production. Supply in 2022 has been revised down by 20,000 b/d, to 100.6 million b/d. This largely reflects a downgrade to the US Lower 48 (crude and NGL) and to the UK.