Country Report
Global upstream oil supply summary - February 2018
Report summary
The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2019. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. The near-term outlook for global supply remains one of strong growth, despite continued production restraint from OPEC and non-OPEC. Global supply is forecast to increase year-on-year by 2.4 million b/d in 2018 and 1.8 million b/d in 2019, on an annual average basis, driven by upward revisions in US Lower 48 oil and NGL supply. The growth is only marginally offset by downward revisions to Venezuela, with reports suggesting a sharp drop in output in Q4 2017. In Nigeria, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) - largely responsible for the 2016 disruption - vowed to launch a fresh wave of attacks on oil installations. We continue to assume production restraint from OPEC and non-OPEC is held through 2019, supported by comments at the January JMMC meeting.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Global supply: surge in growth for 2018 and 2019 despite production restraint
- US L48 upward revisions drive strong growth in 2018 and 2019
- NGL growth fuels further US gains
- OPEC JMMC: 2019 extension of cuts broached for first time
Tables and charts
This report includes 1 images and tables including:
- Liquids changes (million b/d)
What's included
This report contains:
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