Insight
Hidden analogies between the shale bust and the renewables boom
Report summary
Sitting in the driver’s seat today, renewable energies are benefiting from a unique policy push and they’ll be the growth game for the coming decades. But just like they were in shale a decade ago, similar lofty expectations to ensure progress are again a key element that’s helping to lure investors. Capital is plentiful in renewables, just like it was in shale’s early years. Technology expectations are high as well. Can green energies stakeholders learn from some of shale’s missteps, particularly where common enablers exist? No one wanted to pass up the next XTO in the mid 2000’s and no one wants to miss the next Ørsted now.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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1. Over-optimistic modelling
- State of renewables models today
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2. Cheap capital masks risk
- Financing new energies
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3. Technology gains plateau
- Update on renewables technology gains
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4. Scaling projects will create a new set of operational challenges
- Scaling-up new energy
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5. Supply success can capsize markets
- Renewables market dynamics differ
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes 5 images and tables including:
- Evolution of WoodMac supply views
- Average Permian performance by year drilled
- Global wind and solar market growth (base case)
What's included
This report contains:
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