Insight
Kazakhstan’s gas outlook: has it overcommitted to China?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Kazakhstan’s gas sector is coming of age. In 2018, state-owned KazTransGas signed a five-year export deal to deliver up to 1.0 bcfd (10 bcm per year) to China in 2019-23. The scale of the new export commitment cannot be overstated. It represents nearly one-third of Kazakhstan’s marketed gas output and is almost on par with current domestic demand (1.5 bcfd). This has led to concerns – in both Kazakhstan and China – about the Central Asian producer’s ability to deliver on the contract in full.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- A new piece of the China gas supply mix
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Volume growth, but an increasingly blurry strategy
- Where will further growth come from?
- Tengizchevroil
- Karachaganak
- Kashagan
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Gas economics are still a work in progress
- A lack of commercial incentives
- A range of commercial obstacles
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Conclusion: a new roadmap is needed
- Price transparency and incremental reform
- Incentives for upstream cooperation
- Evaluation of new approaches
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Central Asia gas flows to China – base caseKazakh gas – overview of flowsModel non-associated gas field – economic scenarios
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Kazakh gas outlook (production and sales)Economics of Kazakh gas supply to ChinaKazakhstan – key pre-FID gas resource opportunities
What's included
This report contains:
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