Kazakhstan’s gas outlook: has it overcommitted to China?
Kazakhstan’s gas sector is coming of age. In 2018, state-owned KazTransGas signed a five-year export deal to deliver up to 1.0 bcfd (10 bcm per year) to China in 2019-23. The scale of the new export commitment cannot be overstated. It represents nearly one-third of Kazakhstan’s marketed gas output and is almost on par with current domestic demand (1.5 bcfd). This has led to concerns – in both Kazakhstan and China – about the Central Asian producer’s ability to deliver on the contract in full.