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NGL supply - less than meets the eye?

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19 June 2014

NGL supply - less than meets the eye?

Report summary

We all know that a typical gas well's Gas-Oil ratio (GOR) increases over its lifetime, but how does this phenomenon impact NGL production from unconventional reservoirs? By our estimates, a downside risk of 385,000 b/d in the long term NGL production forecast and up to 40% reductions in well NPV10 in some areas. The impacts also extend to asset valuations in the burgeoning midstream and petrochemical sectors in the US.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
    • Liquids-rich plays are the big story in US NGL production
      • Base case NGL production from unconventional plays in the US
    • Potential to overlook key physical phenomena
    • A scenario of declining NGL yields
    • Modelling the NGL supply risk
      • Original and modified NGL decline curves for a well
      • Original and revised NGL production estimates under current scenario
      • Key Implications
        • Base case and downside case NPV10 of type wells in various sub-plays
      • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

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What's included

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    NGL supply - less than meets the eye?

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