Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Act: a fiscal analysis

On 16 August, Nigeria’s president signed the Petroleum Industry Bill into law. The Petroleum Industry Act as it is now known was gazetted on 17 August 2021. The PIA includes changes to royalties and taxes that could see as much as US$18 billion of value transferred to investors. No other jurisdiction has changed fiscal terms to such a degree, for existing lease holders, in recent years. Not all projects will be better off, but conversion to PIA fiscal terms is voluntary. It is now up to lease holders to decide. Using Wood Mackenzie's comprehensive asset models and our Global Economic Model we analyse: How do the new terms affect IOCs, Indigenous companies and NNPC? What do price-based royalties mean for investors? What are the implications for deepwater PSC contracts facing renegotiation? Will onshore, shallow-water or deepwater projects fare best? What does upstream-midstream segregation mean for gas projects? How do Nigeria's fiscal terms now compare globally?