Nord Stream 2, the proposed 55 bcm gas pipeline linking Russia and Germany across the Baltic Sea, is making commercial and technical progress despite political headwinds. There are clear differences of opinion on the pipeline in European business and political circles. US policymakers have waded into the debate and a draft bill on Russian sanctions targets the construction of Russian energy export pipelines. Nord Stream 2 may be impacted. It is still premature to evaluate the implications on European players currently supporting Nord Stream 2 and whether US sanctions will prompt a change in strategy. The commercial and strategic drivers of Nord Stream 2 are strong. Our base case view is that Nord Stream 2 will come online in 2020.
Table of contents
Russia's second Nord Stream pipeline and the EU Third Energy Package
Russian and European national and commercial interests
America First: US sanctions target Nord Stream 2
US sanctions and the EU - the law of unintended consequences