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Oil price crash: what supply might be shut in?

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17 March 2020

Oil price crash: what supply might be shut in?

Report summary

How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result? Using our Lens database, we calculated global short run marginal costs (SRMC – operating costs + taxes and royalties) for current production, at the asset level. At a Brent price of US$35/bbl, revenue from 4 million b/d (4%) of global liquids supply does not cover production costs and government share. This rises to 10 million b/d (9%) if prices fall to US$25/bbl.

Table of contents

  • Resource theme differentiation is dramatic
    • Downward pressure on operating costs
    • Direct impact of the coronavirus outbreak
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Russia
    • The United States
    • Other producing countries

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • Price sensitivity for core resource themes
  • Countries with production most at risk
  • Saudi, Russia and US SRMC curves
  • Top 20 producers and their SRMCs
  • Saudi, Russia, US oil revenue dependence
  • Price-sensitivity of the Russian Government’s share of oil revenue

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Oil price crash: what supply might be shut in?

    PDF 864.34 KB

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