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Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2018: geopolitics, US tight oil and non-OPEC resilience

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05 June 2018

Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2018: geopolitics, US tight oil and non-OPEC resilience

Report summary

Global liquids capacity increases from 103 million b/d in 2018 to a broad plateau of around 113 million b/d in the early to mid-2030s. In the near-term, non-OPEC (US onshore in particular) is the key driver of global supply growth. Beyond 2025, there is increasing reliance on OPEC capacity growth to offset mature field declines from non-OPEC and a slowdown of onshore US growth. This insight comprehensively addresses the complexities of oil supply to 2040 with detailed analysis on a series of themes: • OPEC and geopolitics. How will OPEC production and capacity evolve, and what are the geopolitical risks that could impact our assumptions? • The growth in US tight oil. When will US tight oil production peak, and at what level? Which plays drive this growth and what are the risks? • Non-OPEC supply. Will the resilience in headline non-OPEC production continue? Where are the new sources of supply coming from, and at what cost?

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Volatile geopolitical dynamics add to global supply uncertainty
  • US total liquids production
  • Non-OPEC future sources of supply (pre-FID, YTF, reserves growth, contingent resources)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Oil supply outlook H1 2018.pdf

    PDF 4.44 MB

  • Document

    Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2018: geopolitics, US tight oil and non-OPEC resilience

    ZIP 4.74 MB

  • Document

    Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2018: geopolitics, US tight oil and non-OPEC resilience

    ZIP 4.74 MB