Global liquids capacity increases from 103 million b/d in 2018 to a broad plateau of around 113 million b/d in the early to mid-2030s. In the near-term, non-OPEC (US onshore in particular) is the key driver of global supply growth. Beyond 2025, there is increasing reliance on OPEC capacity growth to offset mature field declines from non-OPEC and a slowdown of onshore US growth. This insight comprehensively addresses the complexities of oil supply to 2040 with detailed analysis on a series of themes: • OPEC and geopolitics. How will OPEC production and capacity evolve, and what are the geopolitical risks that could impact our assumptions? • The growth in US tight oil. When will US tight oil production peak, and at what level? Which plays drive this growth and what are the risks? • Non-OPEC supply. Will the resilience in headline non-OPEC production continue? Where are the new sources of supply coming from, and at what cost?