Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest

This report is currently unavailable

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- Available as part of a subscription
- FAQ's about online orders

13 January 2016

Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest

Report summary

22 major projects and seven billion boe of commercial reserves delayed – that's the damage of the last six months. The total tally of pre-FID projects we estimate have been deferred due to lower oil prices now stands at 68, containing 27 billion boe of reserves.This constitutes US$380 billion of total capex deferred, with US$170 billion at risk over the next five years. With the average Brent breakeven (NPV10) of delayed greenfield projects remaining above US$60/boe, the outlook is bleak for the majority to move into FID contention in 2016. 

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • The industry six months on
  • A growing impact on future oil production
  • and US$380 billion in capital now at risk
  • Major projects, major operators
  • The role of cost deflation
  • Underwater at US$60/bbl
    • Breakevens by regions
  • 2015 FIDs – what do they tell us?
  • 2016 FIDs – what to look out for
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Changes in total deferred reserves since June
  • Changes in deferred reserves (bn boe) by theme
  • Liquids production impacted by project FID delays
  • Deferred pre-FID capex 2016-20 (US$ billion, real)
  • Deferred capex by country (US$ billion, real)
  • Deferred projects by country and commercial reserves (million boe)
  • Net company exposure to delayed projects
  • Changes in capex/boe by project type
  • Changes in capex/boe by region
  • Delayed greenfield projects IRR economics at base and US$60 (real) Brent price decks
  • Resource theme cost curve: Breakeven price versus % commercial reserves of delayed projects
  • Appendix: The 68 deferred projects
  • Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by theme
  • Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by region

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest

    PDF 705.25 KB