Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest



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Report summary

22 major projects and seven billion boe of commercial reserves delayed – that's the damage of the last six months. The total tally of pre-FID projects we estimate have been deferred due to lower oil prices now stands at 68, containing 27 billion boe of reserves.This constitutes US$380 billion of total capex deferred, with US$170 billion at risk over the next five years.With the average Brent breakeven (NPV10) of delayed greenfield projects remaining above US$60/boe, the outlook is bleak for the majority to move into FID contention in 2016.

What's included

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    Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • The industry six months on
  • A growing impact on future oil production
  • and US$380 billion in capital now at risk
  • Major projects, major operators
  • The role of cost deflation
  • Underwater at US$60/bbl
    • Breakevens by regions
  • 2015 FIDs – what do they tell us?
  • 2016 FIDs – what to look out for
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:


  • Changes in total deferred reserves since June
  • Changes in deferred reserves (bn boe) by theme
  • Liquids production impacted by project FID delays
  • Deferred pre-FID capex 2016-20 (US$ billion, real)
  • Deferred capex by country (US$ billion, real)
  • Deferred projects by country and commercial reserves (million boe)
  • Net company exposure to delayed projects
  • Changes in capex/boe by project type
  • Changes in capex/boe by region
  • Delayed greenfield projects IRR economics at base and US$60 (real) Brent price decks
  • Resource theme cost curve: Breakeven price versus % commercial reserves of delayed projects
  • Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by theme
  • Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by region


  • Appendix: The 68 deferred projects

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