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14 Pages

Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest


Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest

Report summary

22 major projects and seven billion boe of commercial reserves delayed – that's the damage of the last six months. The total tally of pre-FID projects we estimate have been deferred due to lower oil prices now stands at 68, containing 27 billion boe of reserves.This constitutes US$380 billion of total capex deferred, with US$170 billion at risk over the next five years. With the average Brent breakeven (NPV10) of delayed greenfield projects remaining above US$60/boe, the outlook is bleak for the majority to move into FID contention in 2016. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest PDF - 705.25 KB 14 Pages, 1 Tables, 13 Figures
  • Pre-FID project deferral update.xls XLS - 316.00 KB

Description

This Upstream Oil and Gas Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the key implications for those involved.

This report helps participants, suppliers and advisors understand trends, risks and issues within the upstream oil and gas industry. It gives you an expert point of view to support informed decision making.

Wood Mackenzie's 500 dedicated analysts are located in the markets they cover. They produce forward-looking analysis at both country and asset level across the globe, backed by our robust proprietary database of trusted research.

Proprietary data means a superior level of analysis that is simply not available anywhere else. Wood Mackenzie is the recognised gold standard in upstream commercial data and analysis.

  • Executive summary
  • The industry six months on
  • A growing impact on future oil production…
  • …and US$380 billion in capital now at risk
  • Major projects, major operators
  • The role of cost deflation
  • Underwater at US$60/bbl
  • Breakevens by resource themes
    • Breakevens by regions
  • 2015 FIDs – what do they tell us?
  • 2016 FIDs – what to look out for
  • Appendix

In this report there are 14 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • The industry six months on
    • Changes in total deferred reserves since June
    • Changes in deferred reserves (bn boe) by theme
  • A growing impact on future oil production…
    • Liquids production impacted by project FID delays
  • …and US$380 billion in capital now at risk
    • Deferred pre-FID capex 2016-20 (US$ billion, real)
    • Deferred capex by country (US$ billion, real)
    • Deferred projects by country and commercial reserves (million boe)
  • Major projects, major operators
    • Net company exposure to delayed projects
  • The role of cost deflation
    • Changes in capex/boe by project type
    • Changes in capex/boe by region
  • Underwater at US$60/bbl
    • Delayed greenfield projects IRR economics at base and US$60 (real) Brent price decks
  • Breakevens by resource themes
    • Resource theme cost curve: Breakeven price versus % commercial reserves of delayed projects
    • Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by theme
    • Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by region
  • 2015 FIDs – what do they tell us?
  • 2016 FIDs – what to look out for
  • Appendix
    • Appendix: The 68 deferred projects
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