Insight
Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
22 major projects and seven billion boe of commercial reserves delayed – that's the damage of the last six months. The total tally of pre-FID projects we estimate have been deferred due to lower oil prices now stands at 68, containing 27 billion boe of reserves.This constitutes US$380 billion of total capex deferred, with US$170 billion at risk over the next five years. With the average Brent breakeven (NPV10) of delayed greenfield projects remaining above US$60/boe, the outlook is bleak for the majority to move into FID contention in 2016.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- The industry six months on
- A growing impact on future oil production
- and US$380 billion in capital now at risk
- Major projects, major operators
- The role of cost deflation
- Underwater at US$60/bbl
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Breakevens by resource themes
- Breakevens by regions
- 2015 FIDs – what do they tell us?
- 2016 FIDs – what to look out for
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Changes in total deferred reserves since JuneChanges in deferred reserves (bn boe) by themeLiquids production impacted by project FID delays
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Deferred pre-FID capex 2016-20 (US$ billion, real)Deferred capex by country (US$ billion, real)Deferred projects by country and commercial reserves (million boe)Net company exposure to delayed projectsChanges in capex/boe by project typeChanges in capex/boe by regionDelayed greenfield projects IRR economics at base and US$60 (real) Brent price decksResource theme cost curve: Breakeven price versus % commercial reserves of delayed projectsAppendix: The 68 deferred projects
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What's included
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