Russian Federation upstream: 5 things to look for in 2023 Report

Insight 02 December 2022

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Report summary

Russia’s upstream will continue to adapt to the ‘new normal’ in 2023 of harsher sanctions and the absence of most IOCs. Demand for Russian oil and gas from a narrower set of markets will impact production. The pivot to Asia will accelerate, with Gazprom redoubling efforts to increase gas sales to China and Rosneft seeking investors for its flagship Vostok Oil project. We have identified five key themes to watch in Russia’s upstream sector in 2023: • Production: how far will oil and gas production fall? • Corporate landscape: what’s next for upstream players? • Gas exports to China: will a Power of Siberia-2 deal be signed? • Vostok Oil: can E&A success entice foreign investors? • Decarbonisation: will hydrogen plans take a back seat?

Executive summary
1. Oil and gas production to fall
2. Corporate conundrums: conclude, continue, collaborate, compete or consolidate?
3. Power of Siberia-2 (PoS-2) gas exports to China – deal or no deal?
4. Vostok Oil – will E&A success be enough to attract investment?
5. Russia will reassess its decarbonisation strategies
- What to look for in 2023 – a regional upstream series