Russia's Northern Sea Route: grand designs, modest progress

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) in Russia's Arctic offshore is a largely untapped maritime trade artery. The Russian government has had a long-held strategic objective to develop year-round shipping along it to maximise value from Russia’s oil and LNG exports. The NSR can also act as a shipping route for goods from Asia to Europe. The outlook, however, for Russia’s Arctic ambitions has changed dramatically since the invasion of Ukraine. We assess the key issues for the development of the NSR: • Pivot to Asia – how important is the NSR for hydrocarbon exports to China and India? • Export volumes – how much could be shipped along the NSR? • Oil and LNG projects – what are the key projects that will unlock the potential of the NSR? • Western sanctions – what impact are they having on the development of the NSR? • Shipping – how many vessels are needed and what progress is being made?