Sub-Saharan Africa upstream: 5 things to look for in 2022 Report

Insight 24 November 2021

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Report summary

Decarbonisation becomes the key priority, despite SSA's small share of global emissions. The M&A dam will burst in 2022, with the biggest deals involving historic exits from Nigerian joint ventures for Shell and ExxonMobil. Eni will sanction Baleine in Cote d'Ivoire — Africa's first ever 'net-zero' upstream project. But while oil production in SSA will really struggle, first gas will be achieved at Coral FLNG — an important milestone for Mozambique. SSA will remain a hot-spot for frontier deepwater exploration by the Majors. Eni and TotalEnergies are again to the fore, but Shell joins them in a return to frontier drilling. Insecurity becomes a more pressing concern across SSA as the fallout from the pandemic heightens tensions and emboldens authoritarian regimes.

Executive summary
- 1. Decarbonisation dominates
- 2. A 'Major' sell-off
- 3. Investment recovers but oil production doesn't
- 4. Frontier exploration continues its resurgence
- 5. Insecurity is a growing concern
- What to look for in 2022 – a regional upstream series