Report summaryThe Lower Tertiary’s 49% geological success rate is basin-leading, with over 5.7 billion boe in recoverable reserves discovered to date. The play is still emerging, with the majority of projects have yet to start production. We expect production to triple over the next ten years as the backlog of pre-FID projects are sanctioned. Greenfield production will require mammoth amounts of capital investment. A steep uptick in spend is expected over the next four years growing at a 34% CAGR to a peak of US$8.5 billion in 2020. Given long lead times, high drilling capex and relatively low recovery factors, we estimate challenged economics for all yet-to-be sanctioned projects. Co-development, improved drilling efficiency, and successful EOR are potential means to improve project economics.
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