Turkish delight at giant deepwater Black Sea gas discovery Report

Insight 25 August 2020

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Report summary

The world-class Sakarya gas discovery is Turkey’s largest-ever find, and one of the biggest global discoveries of 2020. It reshapes Turkey’s energy outlook and reaffirms the Black Sea’s deepwater potential. Located in 2,115 metres of water, the field’s Miocene-Pliocene sands are analogous with ExxonMobil’s nearby Neptun Deep project in Romania. In Turkey, energy is highly politicised. Its annual import bill is a huge economic burden, so the political will to develop this field will be immense. But Turkey’s offshore sector is immature and the path to commercialisation will not be straightforward.

Executive summary
The biggest-ever discovery in Turkey and the entire Black Sea
- A reset for Turkey’s energy outlook and chronic import reliance
Turkey offers an attractive upstream investment environment
- Sakarya will be a national priority project
- But an immature offshore industry and a lack of experience pose risks
TPAO's timeline looks very ambitious
New gas supply would transform Turkey’s import-reliant market
- More than 40 bcm per year of imports are up for renegotiation in the 2020s
- Turkey will not become a gas exporter, but infrastructure dynamics will shift
- The Turkish energy market could look very different in 10 years
Black Sea exploration just got a much-needed boost
What next?
- Potential upside at Tuna-1 and the wider area
- Deepwater contractors should have their eyes on a fast-track subsea development