Upstream M&A – timing the oil price bet

Being on the right side of the commodity price bet is central to creating value through M&A. Today's would-be acquirers view the current environment – low oil prices and a depressed M&A market – as an opportunity to do just that; to buy at the bottom of the cycle. But how big is the upside? In this note, we compare the value of our Deal Pipeline under two oil & gas price scenarios: 1) our base assumption and 2) our base forecast. The difference is striking: Pipeline value doubles to US$150 billion under the forecast (vs. the assumption). The implication is that, for oil price bulls, the current market presents an opportunity to be on the right side of the commodity price bet: effectively, to buy at the assumption and 'sell' at the forecast.