Upstream M&A – timing the oil price bet



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Report summary

Being on the right side of the commodity price bet is central to creating value through M&A. Today's would-be acquirers view the current environment – low oil prices and a depressed M&A market – as an opportunity to do just that; to buy at the bottom of the cycle. But how big is the upside? In this note, we compare the value of our Deal Pipeline under two oil & gas price scenarios: 1) our base assumption and 2) our base forecast. The difference is striking: Pipeline value doubles to US$150 billion under the forecast (vs. the assumption). The implication is that, for oil price bulls, the current market presents an opportunity to be on the right side of the commodity price bet: effectively, to buy at the assumption and 'sell' at the forecast. 

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Upstream M&A – timing the oil price bet

    PDF 313.60 KB

Table of contents

  • The opportune time to acquire?
  • Quantifying the oil price gamble
  • Lessons from the past?
    • Deal Pipeline

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:


  • The deals


  • Price Scenarios (US$/bbl, nominal)
  • Deal Pipeline valuations (US$bn, NPV10)
  • Forecast vs. assumption valuations: NPV delta (US$ bn) and return on investment* (%), deal by deal
  • Deal-by-deal value destruction: purchase price / current WoodMac valuation (%) vs. Brent (US$/bbl)

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