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US Independents: "stay-flat" cash flow framework
Report summary
The strategic imperative for US E&Ps remains to deliver cash to shareholders through the cycle. A majority of US independents do still need to de-lever, but the paydown tempo at current oil prices shaves years off the time to reach “resilience appropriate” targets. With sustained capital discipline, the sector should generate a tremendous amount of free cash flow in this price upcycle. Under a stay-flat scenario, at US$60/bbl WTI, we estimate the group in this analysis can generate ~US$115 billion of free cash flow over five-years after deleveraging to 25% gearing.
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