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What next for Algeria after Bouteflika?

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12 June 2019

What next for Algeria after Bouteflika?

Report summary

Political stability continues to evade Algeria as mass protests show no sign of abating. The political turmoil comes at a critical time for Algeria’s oil and gas sector, which has stagnated over the past decade. So far, there has been no impact on oil and gas production. The outlook for Algeria’s upstream sector is ultimately negative for the remainder of 2019 and much of 2020 irrespective of whether the country’s current transitional leadership can outlast the protest movement. Recent personnel changes will not counter the political disruption which will add to sectoral inertia, tempering expectations for fiscal reform.

Table of contents

  • How we got here
  • Political risks acute for the next 18 months
  • Transition reaches Sonatrach
  • Algeria's upstream waiting game continues
  • Narrow macroeconomic room for manoeuvre
  • Gas: a dimmed future?
  • Uneven gas flows as struggling foreign policy
  • Upstream sector will be overshadowed by struggle for survival

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Probability of Gaid Salah becoming Algeria's president
  • Algeria gas supply v domestic demand (2010-2030)
  • Algeria's gas supply-domestic demand (2010-2030)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    What next for Algeria after Bouteflika?

    PDF 1005.20 KB