Big fiscal changes are happening in Russia as the tax manoeuvre continues. Export duty on crude oil and oil products will reduce gradually to zero by 2024. Over the same period, Mineral Extraction Tax for crude oil will gradually rise. The increase in oil MET will more than compensate for the loss in export duty revenue. We estimate the government could raise an additional US$112 billion for 2019-24 from these changes alone. But it's not all about the upstream and the impact on the refining sector and consumer could be profound. After all, somebody has to pay for the increase in tax revenues. We look at who will win and who will lose from the tax changes: • What is the impact on the upstream? • What is the impact on the refining sector and the consumer? • What oil product taxes will rise in 2019 and what are the associated risks? • What can the government do to mitigate the impact of the tax changes? Please see the related attachment for more details on taxes and subsidies calculation.