4 key factors shaping commodities markets in H2 2026

As any trader knows, volatility brings both risks and opportunities, and the first half of 2026 has seen plenty of both in commodities markets. But what are the macroeconomic themes that could impact commodities through the rest of the year and beyond? 

With the US-Iran conflict grinding on, the global economy is approaching a tipping point. Leveraging proprietary data and intelligence, Wood Mackenzie’s macroeconomic experts have assessed the key risks likely to affect markets in H2 2026 to answer to four key questions:

• Will the global economy remain resilient? Will there be a recovery in 2027 and to what extent? Or could continuing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz tip the global economy into recession? 
• How is conflict in the Middle East affecting different countries? The Iran war is dragging on the global economy, but by how much, and which economies are most disrupted?
• Who is benefiting from the AI boom? Massive investment in generative AI is providing a boost for some economies while others risk losing out — who will be the winners and losers?     
• Are there underlying issues for China? While AI is scaling rapidly, it remains a small part of the Chinese economy — behind AI enthusiasm and booming EV exports, is China’s domestic market sluggish?

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Now fill out the form at the top of the page to download a short article that offers our views on these questions, based on deep quantitative and qualitative analysis from our macroeconomics team.