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2025 outlook

Corporate oil & gas: 5 things to look for in 2025

Capital allocation trends for oil & gas companies and the top themes to look for from the Majors, NOCs, US Independents and International Independents in the year ahead

In the full report:

  1. Capital allocation: planning for a bumpy ride
  2. Majors: split into two camps
  3. NOCs: Middle Eastern giants at the heart of the action
  4. US Independents: M&A wave slowdown
  5. International Independents: a shrinking peer group?

Oil & gas companies face a difficult capital allocation balancing act in 2025. Continued corporate discipline will translate into flat budgets and reduced share repurchase programmes. But could some buck the trend of modest dividend increases with double-digit hikes?

Drawing on insight from our Corporate Strategy & Analytics Service, we explore this theme and more in Corporate oil & gas: 5 things to look for in 2025. Fill in the form for your complimentary copy, and read on for an introduction.

Oil & gas companies will tread cautiously in the year ahead

Caution will be a significant watchword as the oil and gas sector enters 2025, a year in which geopolitical tensions and potential trade wars threaten demand, margins and prices.

Shareholders will continue to reward capital discipline and distributions over investing for growth. Companies will place an even greater emphasis on growing free cash flow to support shareholder returns.

Consistent, disciplined capital allocation will continue, and for most caution will spread to shareholder returns. Which companies might buck that trend? For a closer look at capital allocation dynamics – and the wildcards to watch out for – fill in the form to read the full report.

NOCs will lead all other peer groups in low-carbon spend

More players will need to define their long-term identity. But with a range of risks on the horizon, a degree of pragmatism is required. Investment will shift towards building oil and gas longevity, but low carbon strategies will also advance as the NOCs emerge as a powerful new force.

The NOCs will drive growth within the sector. Advantaged production growth of more than 5% will help offset weaker prices for an elite group of players. The report provides our outlook for growth.

Overarching country targets – and high cash generation – will see the NOCs emerge as the top spending peer group in low carbon. You can read more about the scale of investment – as well as the growth outlook for the sector – in the full report.

Also in Corporate oil and gas: 5 things to look for in 2025

With the Majors split into two distinct camps, how will strategies evolve? Has the consolidation of the last two years positioned the US Independents to outperform on operational and financial metrics? And will the International Independents prove to be a shrinking peer group in the year ahead?

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy of the full report.