Gulf Coast Express expansion begins commissioning

On 9 June 2026, two new nomination points linked to the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) expansion appeared in South Texas near Agua Dulce. Initial nominations were 50,000 MMBtu/d into TGP, followed by 20,000 MMBtu/d into NGPL on 10 June.

The expansion adds 570 mmcfd of incremental capacity, increasing total GCX system capacity to approximately 2.57 bcfd from Waha to Agua Dulce.

At the same time, Waha cash prices responded—rising above zero to $0.315/MMBtu for flow-date 16 June. This follows a prolonged period of weakness, with more than 130 consecutive days of negative pricing in 2026 and a record low of -$9.52/MMBtu on 16 April.

Our take

Early flows are already proving commercially meaningful. Waha prices moved from -$1.03/MMBtu on 8 June to -$0.34/MMBtu on 9 June, reaching positive territory by 16 June for the first time since February.

Nominations into NGPL and TGP confirm that commissioning is underway and point to early signs of wider Permian debottlenecking.

Relief, but not resolution

Despite the initial price reaction, the underlying imbalance remains. Permian production is currently around 24 Bcf/d and is expected to exceed 29 bcfd by 2030.

While capacity additions are forecast to outpace production growth by 2027, the GCX expansion represents an early step toward closing the takeaway gap rather than a full solution.

What comes next

Further infrastructure will be required to sustain price normalization. The next wave of projects—including Blackcomb Pipeline and Hugh Brinson Phase 1—is expected to add around 4 bcfd of additional takeaway capacity before year-end.

Until then, pricing dynamics are likely to remain sensitive to incremental capacity additions and commissioning progress rather than reflecting a fully rebalanced market.

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