NZIA feasibility report: Is the NZIA achievable from a full value-chain perspective?

When the EU introduced the Net Zero Industry Act in 2024, it set a clear mandate for CCS: deliver 50 million tonnes per annum of CO₂ injection capacity by 2030. Our latest analysis suggests something important—framing the challenge purely around storage capacity misses the fundamental issue confronting CCS development across Europe. The bottlenecks span the entire value chain, from capture through to transport and storage.

Wood Mackenzie originally published a report in October commissioned by ExxonMobil, OMV Petrom, Shell, and TotalEnergies to assess whether this storage target was feasible. Since then, the companies have commissioned an expanded study to address the feasibility of the target from a full value-chain perspective. Our investigation went beyond injection capacity to examine capture, transport, and storage as an integrated system. What we discovered challenges conventional thinking about where the CCS problem actually sits.

The findings matter for policy-makers, project developers, and anyone tracking the EU’s progress on carbon abatement. The gap between regulatory ambition and operational reality is widening rapidly.

Here's what our analysis uncovered:

Our projection shows EU injection capacity will fall short by at least 17.5 million tonnes per annum—35% below the mandated target. But here is the critical insight: this shortfall is not primarily a storage problem. It reflects fragmentation across capture, transport, and storage operating on misaligned timelines and regulatory frameworks.

We identified four structural barriers constraining progress:

• Fragmented value chains. Capture, transport, and storage projects need to advance in parallel rather than independently. Storage operators cannot reach Final Investment Decision without firm capture volume commitments. Capture facilities cannot secure financing without guaranteed storage access and viable transport options to store, which at present are absent for many capture projects.
• Persistent project delays. Nearly all EU storage projects have experienced delays averaging one-and-a-half years beyond original timelines. Recent announcements suggest this figure is increasing rather than stabilising. The same is true for capture projects where delays are commonplace especially without a 2030 deadline
• Challenging capture economics. Many capture facilities remain uneconomic without substantial public subsidy. Several high-profile projects have paused recently, citing insufficient financing and high risk exposure. Capture cannot close its financing gap through carbon pricing alone.
• Insufficient supply for EU stores. Geography creates a critical constraint. Large swathes of industrial emissions across Central and Eastern Europe remain disconnected and stranded from planned transport infrastructure. Shipping also facilitates alternative  storage options for EU emitters.  

The NZIA attempts to resolve the classic "chicken and egg" problem by mandating storage capacity. Yet it does so without ensuring parallel progress on capture or transport. The result is a value chain governed by incompatible incentives where no single element can progress independently.

This is where our full analysis becomes essential. We have mapped the specific barriers, quantified the gaps, and assessed what genuine value-chain integration might require. The implications extend across policy design, capital allocation, and project strategy across the entire continent.

To access our complete findings and detailed recommendations, fill out the form at the top of the page to access your complimentary copy of the full report.