1. Horizons Live
  2. Horizons Live: Electric shock

Webinar

Horizons Live: Electric shock

This month’s Horizons report looks at what could happen if electric vehicle adoption moves faster than Wood Mackenzie’s base case. Join us for Horizons Live as our expert panel examines the forces that could drive a faster transition and what it would mean for oil demand, critical minerals and power markets.

Date

2 September 2026

Time

4-5pm BST / 11-12am EST

Wood Mackenzie’s base case sees electric vehicles increasing from 4% of the global passenger and commercial vehicle fleet in 2025 to 25% by 2040. But a combination of higher oil prices, faster progress in Chinese electric vehicle technology and supportive government policy could push adoption significantly further.

In the report’s “electric shock” scenario, global oil demand falls to 99 million barrels per day by 2040, around 5 million barrels per day below the base case. Faster electric vehicle adoption would also put greater pressure on critical mineral supply and electricity networks, while changing the economics of oil refining. Around 40 refineries could close as a result of weaker demand.

This Horizons Live session will bring together Wood Mackenzie’s electric vehicle and energy transition experts to look at what would need to happen for this scenario to play out, where the biggest uncertainties lie and what businesses and investors should be watching.

Join us live as our panel explores how quickly electric vehicles could change the global vehicle fleet, and what a faster transition could mean for oil markets, critical minerals, power systems and energy investment through 2040.

 

In this webinar, you can expect to learn about:

  • What could accelerate EV adoption: how oil prices, government policy and advances in electric vehicle and battery technology could push adoption beyond Wood Mackenzie’s base case
  • China’s role in the transition: why China’s electric vehicle industry could be a major driver of lower costs and higher exports, particularly across emerging markets
  • What faster EV adoption means for oil: how a potential 5 million barrels per day reduction in oil demand could affect crude markets and refinery economics, particularly in OECD markets
  • Critical minerals and supply: why copper could be the biggest supply constraint in a faster EV transition, and where additional investment would be needed to meet demand
  • Pressure on power grids: how rising electricity demand from electric vehicles could affect power systems, and why managed charging will become increasingly important
  • What to watch: which developments in oil markets, Chinese EV exports, battery manufacturing and government policy could indicate that the faster adoption scenario is starting to take shape

Our speakers:

Ed Crooks

Vice Chair Americas and host of Energy Gang podcast

Ed examines the forces shaping the energy industry globally.

Latest articles by Ed

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David Brown, Director, Energy Transition Research, Wood Mackenzie

David Brown

Director, Global Integrated Energy Research

David is a key author of our Energy Transition Outlook and Accelerated Energy Transition Scenarios.

Latest articles by David

View David Brown's full profile
Andrew Brown, Director Head of Demand and Scenarios, Wood Mackenzie

Andrew Brown

Director, Head of Demand and Scenarios

Andrew is responsible for aligning our consumption views across commodities.

Latest articles by Andrew

View Andrew Brown's full profile

Emil Koenig

Senior Research Analyst, Power & Renewables

Latest articles by Emil

View Emil Koenig's full profile

Register now to join the conversation and put your questions to our analysts as they examine the potential for a faster electric vehicle transition and its implications for global energy markets.