Upstream fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2026

As Brent hovers around US$60/bbl and companies maintain strict capital discipline, upstream investment is refocusing on core projects. In this environment, fiscal terms become decisive.

What are the key themes to look out for in the year ahead? What will oil and gas fiscal policymakers be focusing on, and where are the likely hotspots for developments of note?

Drawing on insight from our Fiscal Service, we set out our view in Petroleum fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2026. Read on for a brief introduction – and fill in the form for a complimentary copy of the full report. 

Fiscal terms could sweeten ahead of licensing rounds

Companies remain cautious in a low-price environment. A handful of countries are betting that improved fiscal terms – not just prospectivity – will be needed to attract scarce capital.

Kuwait, for instance, is preparing for its first licensing round in Q2 2026 – a landmark moment.

Over 24 billion boe sits undeveloped and international participation will be pivotal. An apt fiscal balance between enhanced technical services agreements and other frameworks will determine whether Kuwait attracts the right partners.

Read the full report for a global overview of upcoming licensing rounds and elections with potential fiscal changes. Fill in the form at the top of the page for your copy. 

New terms could emerge for incremental production and mature assets

Maximising recovery from producing fields is the lowest-risk upstream investment. But fiscal terms can be obstacles when government share hits maximum levels in late field life. 

Governments are introducing bespoke fiscal frameworks for mature assets in recognition that standard fiscal terms do not work for late-life field economics. The trend is exemplified by Malaysia’s Late Life Asset (LLA) PSC – introduced in 2020 – to preserve production continuity and maximise recovery in mature fields. These LLA PSCs empower contractors with some share of government’s entitlement until they fulfil their share of abandonment costs.

Moreover, strict capital discipline and energy security concerns are forcing innovation in fiscal design. 

For a closer look at how – and where – governments are establishing bespoke frameworks, fill in the form to access the full report. 

Also in Petroleum fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2026…

As policy risks rival geological risks, will legislated fiscal stability clauses become more established as mainstream competitive tools?  And could direct negotiation and other hybrid offerings become more common if governments prioritise speed and technical capability over competitive tension? Read our view on this and more in the full report. 

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.