Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook April 2023
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Report summary
The QHD price continues its downward trend to RMB1,000/t in April. Coal inventory at ports slid, but the Daqin rail line’s maintenance drove it, not soaring demand. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial demand was below expectations. In the meantime, seaborne imports in April were the highest since January 2021. We expect the trend to continue in May with the QHD price falling RMB900/t. Destructive market sentiment devastated the met coal price in April, driven by sluggish steel demand and anaemic coal procurement appetite. The poor steelmaking margin won’t allow for the revival of coking coal prices either. Because May is not a good month traditionally for steel demand, we don’t see any possibilities for steel prices to improve. As such, we expect the domestic coking coal price to drop to RMB1,500/t.
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