China coal short-term outlook April 2024

China reported a 5.3% growth rate of GDP in Q1 2024, which exceeded the expectations of many. However, the property market, highly correlated with coal demand, remained sluggish, with new starts dropping 27.8% in March year-on-year. Although domestic supply fell roughly 4% in the month year-on-year, it failed to prevent the QHD price from sliding to an average of RMB820/t in April from RMB882/t in March. The new stimulus policy of urging new government-bond-funded construction projects to begin before July dominated market confidence. It reversed the bearish sentiment and, with the price weakness of steel, coke and coking coal in early April, both steel mills and coking plants quickly reactivated their coal restocking. Along with traders’ speculations, the market tightened as a result and forced up prices. Will the price keep increasing in the short term? And how will the stimulus policies impact the market in the long run? Read our report for more details.