Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook December 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Despite a scattering of positive signs in November, China’s sudden announcement on 7 December that it was cancelling coronavirus containment measures nationwide caught most market participants by surprise. Economic activities and coal demand were impacted in the short term. As supply increased and the Daqin rail line returned to normal shipments from the second week of December, the coal inventory at four key ports – Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, Caofeidian and Jingtang – increased from 22 Mt to 24 Mt in three weeks and the QHD price dropped to RMB1,200/t from RMB1,400/t one month earlier. The breaking news also persuaded participants in the downstream steel market to activate their winter stocking for the upcoming year. This helped steel mills maintain their operations and further boosted coke and coking coal demand and prices in a traditionally weak demand season. Read our report to find our view on the market in early 2023
Table of contents
- Thermal demand: coronavirus outbreak leads to weak demand
- Met demand: confidence has risen but will be tested in Q2
- Daily production in November broke the threshold of 13.0 Mt/d
- Labour availability will marginally weigh on supply in the near term
- Thermal imports: bearish domestic market indicates weakening import demand in the first quarter of 2023
- Met imports: no substantial changes despite seasonal weakness
- Thermal price: China revised coronavirus rules
- Met price: price increase due to robust restocking
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- China coal output monthly (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (USD/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (USD/t nominal)
What's included
This report contains:
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