China coal short-term outlook February 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 03 March 2022

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Report summary

The domestic thermal coal market continued to be tight after the Lunar New Year holiday. The QHD price returned to around RMB1,100/t. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a meeting with miners on 9 February to discuss the QHD price. On 25 February, the NDRC issued a notice capping the price for term contracted coal to between RMB570 and RMB770/t. We expect the strengthening intervention will lead to a fall in price in the near term. During the Beijing Winter Olympics, stricter environmental and safety concerns resulted in a lower operation rate of steel mills in North China. Weak demand for coke and coking coal resulted in a price decline until 20 February, when the Olympics concluded. We expect the coking coal price to increase as more blast furnaces return to operation after the Two Sessions conference. Read our report for more information.