Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook January 2019: mining accident stirs market
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In January, thermal coal prices fluctuated between RMB587/t and RMB 601/t, before returning to RMB592/t at the end of the month. Metallurgical coal prices dropped slightly before firming up in the second half of the month. The largest driver of the price movement was falling domestic output amid stricter safety inspections following a serious mining accident. Accident-related safety checks will continue to rein in post-holiday production. As a result, total coal output is not likely to recover throughout Q1.
Table of contents
- Fatal mine accident leads to thermal coal price fluctuation
- Metallurgical prices rescued by seasonal and safety cuts to domestic output
- Stimulus package underpins thermal coal demand
- Lower-than-usual metallurgical coal demand amid slumping steel prices
- Domestic output hit 320 Mt in December
- Safety checks could impact output in Q1 2019
- Output to decline during Chinese new year
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key thermal coal prices - history and forecast, US$/t nominal
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
- Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
- Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
- Monthly hot metal production, Mt
- Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
- Thermal coal supply, Mt
- Metallurgical coal supply, Mt
What's included
This report contains:
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