China coal short-term outlook June 2023

The QHD price formed a W shape around RMB800/t in June. The record-high temperatures and the flood of imports were the key factors driving the market in the period. We expect the price will continue to range around RMB800/t in July. However, there is a risk of the price soaring if the extreme hot weather continues due to EI Niño. The market sentiment has been so fragile that even a slight hint of stimulus policies could stir up expectations of a major economic revival. The steel demand didn’t change much in typically hot June, but a decreased MLF interest rate and better-than-expected macro-economic indicators began raising speculations. Finally, it pushed up the steel prices and eventually stabilised the coking coal market. We expect the policy to continue to be the biggest determinant in the short term. Read our report to find more.