Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook May 2019: prices start summer in opposite directions
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
While coal supply will improve in the summer, we expect thermal and metallurgical coal prices to evolve in different directions in the coming couple of months. Without active restocking, Qinhuangdao 5,500 prices will remain weak and stay at around RMB580/t in June but Liulin #4 prices are likely to move up by RMB20/t. Read this month's short-term outlook to understand the factors driving the price movements.
Table of contents
- Lack of restocking activity sends thermal prices on downward trend until mid-June
- HCC price gains persist amid strengthening coke prices
- Strong hydro generation curtails thermal coal demand
- Coking coal demand strengthens on the back of growing coke profits
- Domestic coal output to improve in the summer
Tables and charts
This report includes 12 images and tables including:
- Qinhuangdao port stocks (Mt)
- China gencos stocks (Mt)
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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