Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook November 2022
Report summary
November saw a new coronavirus outbreak in China, impacting all provinces. Daily new cases reached over 40,000 later in the month, the highest ever. Coal demand contracted significantly, with throughput in four key ports, Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, Jingtang, and Huanghua, dropping to 1.44 Mt/d from 1.91 Mt/d last year or the average of 1.88 Mt/d for the first ten months of 2022. As a result, the QHD price dropped over RMB350/t in November. The coronavirus resurgence also created big trouble in the truck transport of coke and coking coal, incidentally providing temporary support against the price decreases in the first half of the month. With positive signs from the government about further relaxing the coronavirus constraints and lending help to property developers, we expect market sentiment to improve but no significant demand changes in December.
Table of contents
- Thermal demand: pandemic outbreak curtails demand
- Met demand: gloomy outlook despite far-off hope
- Various disruptions resulted in a 4.3% or 17 Mt month-on-month production decline in October
- Domestic production is struggling for growth in November and December
- Thermal imports: the price for lower quality seaborne coal falling along with China’s domestic price
- Met imports: Russia and Mongolia to account for 70% of China’s coking coal import
- Thermal price: prices slumped as the coronavirus and warmer temperatures diminished demand
- Thermal outlook: the QHD price to fluctuate around RMB1,200/t
- Met price: the coronavirus surge inadvertently supported the coal price – but higher prices are unsustainable
Tables and charts
This report includes 11 images and tables including:
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- China coal output monthly (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (USD/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (USD/t nominal)
What's included
This report contains:
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