China coal short-term outlook November 2022
November saw a new coronavirus outbreak in China, impacting all provinces. Daily new cases reached over 40,000 later in the month, the highest ever. Coal demand contracted significantly, with throughput in four key ports, Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, Jingtang, and Huanghua, dropping to 1.44 Mt/d from 1.91 Mt/d last year or the average of 1.88 Mt/d for the first ten months of 2022. As a result, the QHD price dropped over RMB350/t in November. The coronavirus resurgence also created big trouble in the truck transport of coke and coking coal, incidentally providing temporary support against the price decreases in the first half of the month. With positive signs from the government about further relaxing the coronavirus constraints and lending help to property developers, we expect market sentiment to improve but no significant demand changes in December.