Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook October 2021
Report summary
The huge increase in thermal coal prices finally triggered government interventions, as China’s power shortage will be critical heading up to the heating season. Measures were taken to increase thermal coal supply by approving new capacities and re-activating mine operations restricted by environmental and land issues. Meanwhile, power supply curtailments to energy-intensive sectors remained. With the key miners promising to ensure supply volumes within a set price range, spot prices started to decline. The metallurgical coal market received less focus from the government. A certain portion of coking coal was diverted to the tight thermal coal market, offsetting the loss in coking coal demand due to weak steel production, and finally supporting a high coking coal price. With coking coal volumes from Mongolia remaining unstable and increased steel production resulting in solid coking demand, we expect coking coal prices to remain high. For more details, please read our report.
Table of contents
- Government’s heavy hand drives coal prices down
- Price plateaus high as more inferior coking coal diverted to power
- Power supply restrictions remain in energy-intensive sectors
- Successful steel production cut promises higher coal demand soon
- Supply is increasing
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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