We are excited to announce that as of February 1, Wood Mackenzie is a portfolio company of Veritas Capital, a leading investor at the intersection of technology and government. Our focus remains on providing you with the best intelligence, analytics, data and tools to ensure you are making the best data-driven business decisions with confidence.  

Read more in our news release here. 

Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook October 2022

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

03 November 2022

China coal short-term outlook October 2022

Report summary

Disruptions to the Daqin rail line was a major driver for the thermal coal market in October. Firstly, daily shipments along the line dropped to 1 Mt during the maintenance period from 28 September to 22 October. Secondly, the line reportedly transported only 0.7 Mt on 14 October, caused by a local coronavirus outbreak. Finally, the Daqin rail firm announced a one-week extension of its maintenance programme, to 29 October. These issues together pushed the QHD price up to RMB1,638/t on 25 October. Any market confidence on the positive signs given by the Chinese Party Committee Congress soon waned. Demand continued to be low and bearish sentiment prevails for the coming winter. Margin conditions for steel making dropped to the low point seen in July, and the steel mills slowly suspended their BFs. What does that mean for coking coal demand and prices?

Table of contents

  • Thermal demand: slumping hydrogeneration underpins coal generation
  • Met demand: recovery proved to be overrated - again
  • Daily output in September achieved a YTD recorded high of 12.89 Mt/d
  • Production in fourth quarter is expected to maintain momentum
  • Thermal imports: Russian 5,500 coal becomes cheaper than Newcastle 5,500 in Asia since October
  • Metallurgical imports: volumes from Russia and Mongolia continued to grow
  • Thermal price: the coronavirus outbreak of Daqin rail line pushed up the QHD price
  • Thermal outlook: issues will push the QHD price upward
  • Met price: unreal price increase defeated by a weak reality

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
  • Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
  • China coal output monthly (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
  • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China Coal Short Term Outlook October 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 412.89 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook October 2022

    PDF 1.01 MB